## What is the probability of winning in Hold’em Casino?

Michael Shackleford, a well-known mathematician and gambling expert, is conducting a large and interesting study on probabilities in Casino Hold’em poker. The computer calculations took almost a month to only analyze a third of the possible variations of the game.

## Casino Hold’em Poker Combinations

Quite telling are the probabilities of getting the basic combinations in the game:

• Royal Flush 0.000026;
• straight flush – 0.000216;
• check – 0.001489;
• full house – 0.021195;
• flush – 0,018161;
• straight or weaker combination – 0.23106.

The main result of M. Shackleford was the conclusion that any game against the house, in fact like casino hold’em, from the player’s point of view is a game with a negative material expectation. So if you use the most common Casino Hold’em rules as a payout option, the casino would have a 2.16% advantage. The advantage when using payout options 1 and 2 is 2.4% and 1.96% respectively. Interestingly, when playing with a bonus bet, the casino has an advantage of 6.4%, but it’s no secret that in casino games, bonus bets are never more profitable than bets in the base game.

## How to win in casino hold’em poker?

Of course, the mathematical calculations of M. Shackleford’s methods are related to the long-distance game. In short term, however, there are significant fluctuations in the size of the player’s bankroll, which allows him to work out a certain strategy for playing poker. But if in Texas Hold’em, where the game is being played against the same opponents, there are strategies to achieve a positive win percentage from a distance, there is no optimal strategy for casino poker.

Nevertheless, Michael Shackleford did conclude that the most effective course of action would be to raise the Call bet 82% of the time, and in 18% of cases the game should be abandoned. These cases are mostly based on the player’s pocket cards being few and the chances of a straight or flush being very small or non-existent.