probability in Hold'em Casino

What is the probability of winning in Hold’em Casino?

Michael Shackleford, a well-known mathematician and gambling expert, is conducting a large and interesting study on probabilities in Casino Hold’em poker. The computer calculations took almost a month to only analyze a third of the possible variations of the game.

Casino Hold’em Poker Combinations

Quite telling are the probabilities of getting the basic combinations in the game:

  • Royal Flush 0.000026;
  • straight flush – 0.000216;
  • check – 0.001489;
  • full house – 0.021195;
  • flush – 0,018161;
  • straight or weaker combination – 0.23106.

The main result of M. Shackleford was the conclusion that any game against the house, in fact like casino hold’em, from the player’s point of view is a game with a negative material expectation. So if you use the most common Casino Hold’em rules as a payout option, the casino would have a 2.16% advantage. The advantage when using payout options 1 and 2 is 2.4% and 1.96% respectively. Interestingly, when playing with a bonus bet, the casino has an advantage of 6.4%, but it’s no secret that in casino games, bonus bets are never more profitable than bets in the base game.

probability of winning in Hold'em Casino

How to win in casino hold’em poker?

Of course, the mathematical calculations of M. Shackleford’s methods are related to the long-distance game. In short term, however, there are significant fluctuations in the size of the player’s bankroll, which allows him to work out a certain strategy for playing poker. But if in Texas Hold’em, where the game is being played against the same opponents, there are strategies to achieve a positive win percentage from a distance, there is no optimal strategy for casino poker.

Nevertheless, Michael Shackleford did conclude that the most effective course of action would be to raise the Call bet 82% of the time, and in 18% of cases the game should be abandoned. These cases are mostly based on the player’s pocket cards being few and the chances of a straight or flush being very small or non-existent.


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